In the market wait for hatching medium difference at the time that reserve led, but the central bank again unified the savings reserve of raising the savings financing institution to lead 0.5 percentage points, the situation of this full elucidation current rightness of blunt excess liquidities was still very rigorous.The industry insider analysis said that faced this kind of rigorous situation, the savings reserve rate would be multifarious to raise.
The Rui silver stock certificate chief economist Wang Tao points out that the stock certificate of Rui silver this front has already predicted that the central bank will raise savings for many times this year reserve rate to tighten a market liquidity.However, Wang Tao thinks this time economic data that raise to deposit a reserve rate and will soon announce have no too the toll-gate fasten.
Add foreign exchange to share significant increment, enlarged the central bank liquidity management difficulty.The data that the central bank announces on January 11 suggests that our country the foreign exchange shares the style as 403,300,000,000 dollars and increases 83,700,000,000 dollars a little bit November in December, 2010, the wreath ratio increases 27.03% and orders for second highest inside 2010.The data suggests that up to 12 the end of the months, 2010s, the our country foreign exchange shares a style of surplus amount to reach to 22.56 dollars, 2010 whole year the foreign exchange share a style to increase 2.97.
The central bank choice continues to raise a savings reserve rate, not continues to add an interest and there is also the consideration to weigh policy gains or losses.At the transportation bank(601328, ) chief economist connect even see, this year Chinese economy growth the speed will have to drop, the interest rate level of the United States is lower in the meantime, and world mobility deluge, the monetary policy of the low interest rate a little bit much sees, if at this time the central bank significant exaltation interest rate, draw back a margin with the United States, certanly will cause the pressure enlargement of capital inflow.Before the United States didn't obviously add an interest, the domestic significantly adds the possibility of interest smaller.
The agriculture went strategic management Dept. general manager's beard new Zhi analysis to say, in 2011 open market operation two class market the rate of return pour to hang, will cause Financing Bills issue difficulty, this makes the central bank passed the difficulty enlargement of open market operation recall liquidity, the central bank may depend on legal ratio adjustment to back and forth accept liquidity more.
The central bank relevant personage also declares in several situations, the central bank will hard carry through to carry out steady monetary policy and strengthen a macro view with circumspection management, chase a very mobility total gateway, guide the monetary credit total amount reasonable growth, keep reasonable of social margin scale.
Connect an even estimate, the first quarter of this year degree adds an interest to 1~2 times have great possibility, before Chinese New Year with Chinese New Year after all probably raise.This narrows to take interest rate degree for urging the negative interest rate appearance to have an improvement.Societe Generale(601166, ) experienced economist Lu government Wei also thinks that return strength in Financing Bills can not effectively improve, super expectation of outside the Mao data induct to revalue an anticipant circumstance under, anticipate the first quarter of this year the degree may need very much with on the average monthly once of the frequency raise a reserve rate.
Aim at bank at the beginning of the year the concentration puts the power head of loan, the Chinese agency section, hospital pays spring begins to think, the central bank is this time rate for raising reserve and inform an explicit signal to the market, is this year commercial bank not the ability is too quickly too many and put a loan and otherwise have a more scathing policy set.Add to believe loan scale under the opposite and fixed circumstance in the bank, the whole past serviceses produce and believe a loan to extend speed limited, this will produce the just a little negative influence on bank earnings.