The gold dollar, waiting for the non-agricultural data
It is reported: the New York Federal Reserve on Thursday ( December 1st) said in a statement, the Fed will in December 13 for approximately $45000000000 to buy bonds operation, and in the same period in 7 for $52000000000 to sell debt operation.
Before, the Federal Open Market Committee in September meeting on interest rates decision, in 2012 6 before the end of the month to buy $400000000000 6 years period to the 30 period of bonds, and in the same period to sell the same scale for three years or more short-term debt. The Fed will also be at the end of each release next month to buy and sell tentative plan.
We think the dollar QE monetary policy, the price of gold from $1000 an ounce to $1320 an ounce of nearby, after QE2 monetary policy to the gold of the relative value of from 1320 to $1520 an ounce of nearby, until 2011 6 at the end of the United States, two rounds of the relaxed monetary policy officially ended, but the two rounds of monetary policy, not to change the existing American symptoms and global symptoms, so, the United States government hand open banknote printing machine, twisted to rescue the market, at the end of 6 to purchase for $400000000000 in the United States 30 year treasury, on the other hand, drive up the United States debt ceiling, from $14.6, to $16, the market price began to seriously crazy, price distortion and expansion, a position to 1920, appear serious bubble, finally in September of this year, return to the QE2 era of gold, but $400000000000, and $16 federal debt ceiling, would not let the gold stays too long in 1550. Later, the price began to return, return to the relative equilibrium price, in 1680 ~ 1700.
The price of gold just into the consolidation range, the United States government announced a $45000000000 plan to buy bonds operation. This gave the gold price, bring about a new round of rally driving force. We expect next year, gold, the basic will be in 1750 above. Not even out of its price continues to twist up, even new highs near $2000 an ounce or spying.
In addition, the market veteran, also in the estimate, the United States the first quarter of next year to the two quarter, the QE3 will run, the capital scale, at present unknown. Once the QE3 out, gold rise in power and below the 1700 support belt will be relatively more powerful. Before, our analysis points out, QE3 come on stage, need two basic conditions: first, the price remained stable, in two, the unemployment rate is relatively improved.
So, tonight's non-farm data, so we have to pay attention to, because it is this year, finally announced the first non-agricultural data. According to the United States market think: 11 rose after the transfer of population of blame farming obtain employment change ( people ) + 122000 data for + 8 so, if published data such as expected, so the price of gold and silver prices will be reduced, thereby forming a clear to adjust the pattern of shocks. For the next year on do sufficient time to prepare.
From morphology, showing a huge triangle, so, we think, at present, is likely to continue in the big triangle, a correction, for the future of breakthrough time set. In addition, a hand-drawn chart show on Christmas, a time window. This window will choose gold an important trend, at present, we believe, is to have a greater chance of.
Silver form of on-line display of a large triangle, space overall, much greater than gold. Therefore, we fold it, a simple morphological analysis, silver is expected may go shake upward trend. So the relative will have a relative wide and severe shock wave pattern.